预测未来7步法

对男人来说拥有精准如女人般的第六感听起来不像是什么好事,可如果能用来预测未来那就不一样了,试想当别人还摸着石头的时候你却已经站在桥头的优越感。

未来学家尼尔·伯勒斯归纳出了理解未来的7个原则,这7个原则有很强的操作性,可直接上手:

1 从确定性开始(使用硬趋势预测将会发生什么) 2 洞察先机(基于你所知的未来确立策略) 3 变革(利用技术驱动型变革发挥自身优势) 4 跳出你面临的问题(这并非真正的问题) 5 反其道而行(看向没有人关注的方向,做没有人做过的事) 6 重新定义和再创造(用强有力的新方式识别并利用你的独特性) 7 主导未来(否则被别人主导)

说实话我读完全书还是没能理解作者为什么这样界定这7个原则,这些原则间并没有一而贯之的逻辑,并且相互间还有些交叉重叠,不过当作检查表来用确实可以拿来即用。这几个步骤简言之就是:识别你的问题及其边界,理解问题所涉及领域的硬趋势,硬趋势就是确定性的未来,知道了硬趋势就像是穿越到了未来并站在未来的制高点上反过来寻找通往未来的路径并思考如何利用自己的优势以确保超越路上所有的障碍。

比如你领导给你出一个难题:将一头大象装到冰箱里。这个问题涉及到了多个行业及领域,如制造业、生物学等,甚至还牵扯到了物流 :) 你不得不绞尽脑汁思考应对的办法,比如造个超大冰箱,或者发明个能自由缩放物体的装置,亦或一个能将物体电子化/数字化又能根据信息即时重组实体的“传送机”,当然时光机更可以,利用时光机将大象还原成小象或者干脆还原成一个受精卵的状态。科技的想像就是没有边界,远超你所想。此时你的问题已不再是问题,毕竟时光机都有了还要啥自行车嘛 :)

另外也不妨再反过来想想你领导为什么给你出这么个难题:或者他想让他老婆的二舅的小儿子的女同学的二妹来顶替你的位置,或者是他领导的领导不爽他才故意给他出了这个难题,结果你领导想了几天也没想到办法便直接将锅抛到了你头上。既然想到了这里,那后面就是要联合你领导的领导干掉你领导还是联合你的领导一起解决掉大领导的问题了 ...

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